Trends, Turks and the politics of identification

written by Suat KINIKLIOGLU

Tuesday, 13 September 2005

Last week, the German Marshall Fund of the United States launched Transatlantic Trends 2005. Transatlantic Trends is an annual public opinion survey examining American and European attitudes toward the transatlantic relationship. A project of the German Marshall Fund and the Compagnia di San Paolo, this year's survey examined what citizens on both sides of the Atlantic think about a broad range of topics, including perceptions of foreign policy threats, such as international terrorism, nuclear weapons and global warming; and American and European views of each other and other countries as well as their ability to work on global and international problems together. Turkey also figured prominently in the survey. The Turkish media picked up on a number of flashy results such as the decrease in Turkish support for European Union membership and the corresponding skepticism among Europeans towards Turkey. Transatlantic Trends 2005 also covered a number of interesting questions dealing with Turkish identity and Turkish self-perceptions.

As a Turk one of the most interesting questions was the question that asked respondents whether they agree or disagree with the proposition that “as a predominantly Muslim country, Turkey does not belong in the EU.” As one would expect a good number of French (47 percent) and Dutch (40 percent) agreed, in varying degrees. Some 39 percent of Poles and 41 percent of Slovaks also shared this view. No surprise here, as we have unfortunately become acutely aware of some of the sharper Eastern European opposition to Turkey's EU drive. Quite annoying, given that these nations were communist and we were defending the southern flank of NATO for decades and the fact that they pleaded for Turkish support for their NATO drive not too long ago. All of that is conveniently forgotten now. Anyway, the surprise is that a good number of Turks agree with their European counterparts. Some 24 percent of Turks agreed strongly with the proposition above, while 18 percent agreed somewhat. In other words, 42 percent of Turks think that Turkey does not belong in the EU because it is predominantly Muslim. The only good news is that 52 percent of Turks oppose this proposition and still constitute a majority that believes Turkey's predominantly Muslim population is not a factor in where Turkey belongs politically. Although there is a majority on this side, the numbers still point to a polarization on the question of Islam and identity. Indeed, Islam has become a central point of reference and defining factor as to where Turks stand politically. With the exception of the Democratic People's Party (DEHAP), Turkey's political parties pretty much define themselves according to their relationship to religion. They are either secular or Islamist; they support the relaxation of the turban issue or they do not; they favor an adjustment to the university entry exam system that would allow imam-hatip graduates to enter university or they do not. The reference remains Islam.

On the issue of threat perception, Turks were pretty much in line with Europeans and Americans. Economic downfall is the top threat for Turks. Although figures are considerably high, in relative terms Turks are less worried about Islamic fundamentalism and international terrorism than Europeans or Americans. This could be reasoned with the fact that Turks have been living with terrorism for decades, long before Sept. 11 “securitized” the international arena. Other threats seem to be similarly viewed and are within averages except for one threat -- AIDS. AIDS seems to have taken its toll in Turkey. Although official figures point to a less dramatic picture in Turkey on AIDS, 63 percent of Turks believe they will be personally affected by AIDS in the next 10 years. In view of a 38 percent European average, 63 percent is a pretty dramatic figure. There is no doubt that the increasing mobility of prostitution from post-Soviet countries has had a considerable impact on the spread of this disease in Turkey. Some 83 percent of Turks see AIDS as an important threat. No small figure.

Transatlantic Trends 2005 also asked Turks what they think about other countries on a scale from zero to 100, with 100 meaning a very warm, favorable feeling and zero indicating a very cold and unfavorable feeling. As was the case last year, Turks are cold towards the United States (28), cooler, in fact, among nine European countries also included in the survey. Turks have become unfavorable towards France (29). While support for Russia (24), China (46) and Iran (36) have increased a little, overall these figures are rather low and are not even above the “neutral” 50. The EU still maintains the highest warmth degree (50), but analyzing the Turkish figures and comparing them with the other 10 countries polled it becomes apparent that Turks are not particularly warm to any other nation. Turks feel alone and isolated. Palestinians are seen favorably (49) in Turkish eyes, while Turks are cool towards Israel (14). Indeed, Turks are only particularly warm towards themselves. Turks gave 82 degrees to Turkey. These figures seem to confirm our famous isolationist dictum, “There is no friend to a Turk but a Turk.” Given the extremely disappointing performance of our European colleagues and the hostile messages coming out of some European quarters vis-à-vis Turkey since Dec. 17, it is not surprising that Turks are confused, angry and increasingly view the world from an isolationist standpoint.