Turkey is a more polarized country today than it was a couple of months ago. The events of recent months, particularly the political crisis precipitated by the establishment, have not only accentuated the differences between black and white Turks, but have also pushed a large number of grey Turks to choose sides.

The large-scale rallies that reached the shores of the Black Sea on Sunday appear to have come to an end, but regardless of what large segments of the Turkish media would like us to believe, they have underlined the existence of “two Turkeys.” Rarely did we see messages that urged for compromise. Instead Turkey’s largely deprived, devout and often provincial Turks were asked to become adherents of the white Turks, or else…

In my opinion the outcome of the election is pretty much certain. The AK Party (Justice and Development Party) will sweep the board again. What is uncertain is how many parties will make it into Parliament. Rumors of a rise in support for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) do not match the polling data I have recently seen. Nor does the intense media hype about the Democrat Party (DP) seem to correspond to the emotions in the Anatolian heartland. I was recently in a number of central Anatolian cities, and there is a distinct dissatisfaction with the conduct of the True Path Party (DYP) and Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) during the presidential election rounds. Also the uniting of the two parties seems to have brought about internal chaos at the local level. Yet the DP is currently above the 10 percent threshold quota, albeit by a very close margin. As expected the Youth Party (GP) is maintaining strong support in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, mostly at the expense of typical DP voters. I am most curious about the Republican People’s Party (CHP), but it seems unlikely that they will reach more than the 20 percent level. Although a few percentage points of change can be expected as the campaign unfolds, significant changes are not expected unless a major incident occurs on the political scene.

What is more significant than these figures is the election of the next president. We will need to elect the next president without delay and with the consensus by large segments of society. The next parliament must make the election of our next president its first priority if the proposed constitutional changes have not been approved by then. If they are approved, these constitutional amendments will mean more for the election of the 12th president of the Turkish Republic. Ultimately the stability of our democracy is dependent upon on the ability of the establishment and the popular representative of the people -- the AK Party -- to reach a commonly acceptable compromise. The political elite need to begin a process that would pave the way for a domestic political consensus. Such a historic compromise will need to include a discussion on the reform of the Higher Education Board (YÖK), the headscarf issue and the imam-hatip schools. It will also need a further consensus on an appropriate definition of the secular order in this country. Most importantly it will require a genuine desire to overcome the current tension and further normalize the Turkish polity. The next AK Party parliamentary group, as well as the composition of the opposition and also the non-parliamentary components of the elite, needs to engage in a process whereby the above-mentioned key issues will be publicly deliberated. Turkey’s long-sought political consensus cannot be reached otherwise.

Hopefully we will not continue to polarize and further alienate Turkey from within. This would be in no one’s interest. The real test for our democracy will start on July 23, as we need to start a real debate about what sort of country we want to cohabitate in…