These are days when conferences on Turkey are decorated with panels declaring “Who lost Turkey?” or “Are we losing Turkey?”

This question, while useful for attracting attention, is far from being the right question. If it must be asked, the answer to this question is “no.” In fact, we are not losing Turkey. On the contrary, we are seeing a profound transformation of Turkey. Yet we often fail to recognize what is at play. In my humble view the primary trends in Turkey can be summarized as follows:

1. Change of elites. There is a rapid and sweeping change of elites. The old, polished, English-speaking, staunchly pro-western elite is being replaced by a more nationalist, suspicious and less dependent one. Some segments of this elite are more self-confident and are challenging the decades-old dominance of Turkey’s pro-western outlook. This elite is also more cognizant and positive about Turkey’s Ottoman past. In tandem with most of the population -- it is more conservative, devout, or at least more respectful of religion in general. It must be added that this new elite has unprecedented access to capital and lucrative government tenders.

2. New understanding of foreign policy. Most Turks and a good portion of the foreign and security policy establishment see Turkey’s role in its region evolving. Intellectually inspired by the vision of Ahmet Davutoðlu, who advises our prime and foreign ministers, more and more Turks understand that Turkey is no longer a flank country but is situated at the center of a critical region. Combined with Turkey’s increasing economic self-confidence and ease in dealing with these regions, Turkey understands that it has a lot more playground than the EU. Hence, Turkey is reintegrating with its immediate neighborhood, most strikingly evident with Russia, Syria and Iran. What was a long-standing anomaly is now being remedied.

3. A distinct sense of frustration. If one examines the last 15 years from a Turkish perspective there is not a lot of positive. Gone are the days when Turks were defending the southeastern flank of NATO. Formerly communist/socialist adversaries now arrogantly taunt that Turkey should not be allowed to join the EU. Its immediate neighborhood is on fire with Bosnia/Kosovo, Abkhazia/South Ossetia, Karabakh, Iraq and maybe Iran. Turks have become weary of the EU process. Turcosceptics have successfully exploited the Armenian issue. Greek Cyprus readily plays the role of the spoiler and has not been dealt with appropriately to this day. Turkey’s relationship with the US has also been severely damaged because of the Iraq war and the direct security threats emanating from the PKK presence in Northern Iraq.

Despite these three major trends there is a positive emerging and that is Turkey is normalizing both domestically and regionally. The decades-old anomaly of Turkey turning its back to the Middle East, the Caucasus, the Mediterranean and the Balkans has come to an end. Turkey is gradually normalizing with these regions, trading with them and deepening its political dialogue. Should current trends continue, Turkey is destined to become a regional hegemon. On the domestic front Turkey is making significant strides to further open and democratize. The two key challenges remain how to deal with religion within a secular democracy as well as how to administer the state’s relationship with Turkish citizens of non-Turkish descent, most notably the Kurds. Both issues are increasingly being deliberated and will eventually be solved.

What then is at work in Turkey? We are witnessing a momentous shift in the internal balances of the Turkish elite which has direct bearing on the country’s self-identification and its role in its region. Turkey is becoming a different country; a country that acts more independently, is more integrated with its immediate neighborhood and has more areas of strategic maneuverability. The challenge remains to make the mental shift that recognizes this historic change as a constructive and welcome development.